Market Outlook: Stock markets are still resilient
Stock markets are still being propped up by hopes about restarting economies and stimulus measures. This past week we have also seen a tragic series of events in the United States − after the Minneapolis police caused the death of an African-American man in their custody, George Floyd − but subsequent widespread demonstrations and vandalism have not significantly affected financial markets. Over the past month until June 2, Swedish and American stock markets gained 8-11% in local currencies, though they remained 5-6% below year-end 2019 levels.
Market Outlook: Stock market strength, despite increased trade and security policy concerns
The strength of the stock market is impressive. In the United States, the broad S&P 500 equity index gained 3.2% last week. This was a 32% upturn from its March 23 low. Risk appetite is fuelled by hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine, continued signals of virus stabilisation, restarted economies and data showing that growth bottomed out in April. The Swedish krona is also benefiting from this environment. Medical advances will be important to risk appetite as well as business and household confidence, in a world that is likely to face virus-related setbacks. Heightened security and trade policy concerns have not been enough to lower market willingness to take risks.
Market Outlook: Calmer markets, with a focus on recovery
At the end of March, about 90% of the global labour force was wholly or partially locked out of its usual physical workplaces, but today's news headlines are instead dominated by the launching of exit plans from such coronavirus-related restrictions. This suggests that global growth reached its absolute low point in April, as various quick indicators confirm. The focus of market attention is now increasingly on the recovery and what new stimulus packages are needed.
Investment outlook: Restart after sudden halt?
In the last issue of Investment Outlook (published in February), we predicted unexpected news and dramatic fluctuations in financial markets. This proved more correct than we would have wished. The COVID-19 crisis is having – and will continue to have – a major impact on economic growth, the functioning of economies and financial market performance, but our forecasts indicate that the unusually deep low point of the downturn is near.
Nordic Outlook: Unprecedented halt, despite record stimulus
The COVID-19 outbreak, combined with the collapse in oil prices, will have a major negative impact on the economy in Norway. Mainland GDP (excluding oil, gas and shipping) will contract by 7.4 per cent in 2020, followed by a 5.2 per cent rebound in 2021. Despite a forceful policy response, the economic recovery will be slow and will be hampered by falling petroleum sector demand and high unemployment.
Market Outlook: Hopes of reopening lift market mood
After closing lower last week, leading stock markets have moved back into positive territory. So far in 2020, global equities are down about 15% (MSCI All Countries World Index in US dollars). Like last week, one positive driving force is hopes of a gradual reopening of locked down economies in many countries.
Market Outlook: Small steps forward, but oil plunges
On April 20 the price of West Texas Intermediate (May 2020 futures) took a dive into negative territory for the first time ever, reaching USD -40/barrel before rebounding to slightly positive levels again on April 21.
Market Outlook: Markets holding up despite weak forecasts
Stimulus measures and signals that economies will gradually open up are helping to sustain financial markets. Stock markets ended Easter week on a positive note, while this week they are turning somewhat weaker again, but in general showing smaller movements than earlier this spring.
Market Outlook: Coronavirus hopes lift share prices
Signs that the spread of COVID-19 may have peaked in some European countries – amid indications that the number of coronavirus deaths in New York has stopped climbing, according to the latest figures − have boosted stock markets in recent days.
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