Gå til søkefunksjon Gå til innhold

Du må bruke en annen nettleser. For å bruke våre webtjenester kan du isteden bytte til en av disse nettleserne: Apple Safari, Google Chrome, Microsoft Edge eller Mozilla Firefox. Les mer om anbefalte nettlesere.

Market Outlook: War, inflation and central banks

Last week many of the world’s stock markets closed higher. In Sweden the All-Share Index (OMXSPI) rose by 4.6% during March 4-11, while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 2.2%. The opposite trend prevailed in the United States, where the S&P 500 lost 2.9%.

Ten-year US Treasury yields have continued upward, trading early this week (March 14-15) at around 2.10%. One encouraging trend for financial markets is that oil prices have continued to fall since last week’s multi-year high. Brent crude is now trading at just below USD 100 per barrel.

The world

More central bank policy announcements

This week’s single most-watched macroeconomic statistic is scheduled for publication tonight (Wednesday, March 16) Swedish time, when the Federal Reserve makes its monetary policy announcement. We expect the US central bank to raise its key interest rate, now 0-0.25%, by 25 basis points. Given a consumer inflation rate of nearly 8% in February, the Fed has no other choice than to begin its rate-hiking cycle and to signal additional hikes at coming policy meetings.

The Bank of England will make its policy announcement tomorrow (Thursday, March 17). We expect a rate hike there too and an announcement that the British central bank will let its balance sheet shrink by ceasing to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds.

The Nordic countries

Surprisingly high Swedish inflation figure

The Swedish inflation figure published on March 14 was surprisingly high. Year-on-year CPIF inflation (the consumer price index less interest rate changes) rose to 4.5% in February, exceeding the market consensus forecast of 4.1%.

Our Market View

"Our Market View" is not included in this week's Market Outlook but is being replaced by a scenario analysis, which we will publish later this week.