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Market Outlook: From inflation worries to recession worries

  • A wave of manufacturing PMIs will begin soon
  • Riksbank key rate announcement on Thursday
  • ͏‌Market Outlook takes a summer break   

While Sweden and other parts of the Nordic region were celebrating their Midsummer holiday on June 24, the Stockholm exchange missed a stock market rally that was under way elsewhere in the world. Sweden’s All-Share Index (OMXSPI) lost about 1.3% last week. Meanwhile the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 2.4% and America’s S&P 500 Index closed more than 6.4% higher on June 24 than on June 17.

US Treasury yields, both short and long, continued to fall last week compared to their peak levels around the time of the Federal Reserve’s 0.75 point key interest rate hike in mid-June. This was because market observers are increasingly starting to see a risk of recession.

The World

A wave of manufacturing PMIs will begin soon
On Friday, July 1, final monthly purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector in many countries and regions will begin to be published. Flash PMIs for the euro area and the United States released last week showed fairly big downturns. We are likely to see somewhat gloomier PMI figures in Sweden as well.

The Nordic countries

Riksbank key rate announcement on Thursday
The main item on this week’s Swedish macroeconomic calendar is the Riksbank’s key interest rate announcement on June 30 (tomorrow). A rate hike is regarded as certain, but it remains to be seen how large it will be. The Swedish central bank will also publish new forecasts of inflation and its own rate path.

Happy summer!

Summer has arrived and it is time for Market Outlook to take a holiday break. We will be back during the second half of August with exciting analyses and newsworthy updates.

Until then, stay safe and have a great summer!