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Market Outlook: When good news is bad news

  • Positive/negative reaction to the strong US jobs report
  • Lower European inflation
  • Strong signals in the US service sector

When trends reverse

Our fundamental view of growth, inflation and central banks remains essentially unchanged. We expect a mild recession in the Western world (the US and Europe, including Sweden). We believe that inflation, which has peaked in the US, will also fall in Europe next year and that central banks can thus end their interest rate hikes.

This also means that next summer we will enter a phase in which economic growth will accelerate again, while inflation and interest rates will fall. That would be a good scenario for risk assets such as equities. Hope among investors that we are headed in this direction is probably behind the recent stock market rebound (and bond yield decline).

Read our December market view