Nordic Outlook: A delayed, but steeper, slowdown expected
Growth in mainland GDP has held up better than feared, but economic activity indicators still point to a recession ahead. Households are unable to sustain current consumption. Falling home prices and cautious businesses will weigh on mainland investments. An abrupt slowdown in mainland GDP growth combined with a peak in core inflation in early 2023 means that Norges Bank is probably done hiking its key rate. We expect rate cuts starting in Q1 2024.