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Market Outlook: US midterm elections and CPI inflation data

  • Mixed signals from central banks
  • US employment growth is strong again
  • What is happening with China’s COVID-19 policy?
  • The US went to the polls

Macroeconomic factors vs market forces

Central banks are following their key interest rate hiking plan, spicing it up with tough rhetoric. As expected, the US Federal Reserve raised its key rate by 75 basis points. Initially, the market reacted positively in the hope that the pace of rate hikes will be slower from now on, but this positive reaction was short-lived. Shortly afterward, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that a change in monetary policy is not in the cards until inflation is under control. Macroeconomic factors thus continue to weigh on investor sentiment, even though strong companies and valuations point in the opposite direction. We are sticking to our neutral view on the stock market.

Last week’s economic news headlines were dominated by central bank key interest rate announcements and by continued strong American employment. This week the focus of attention will be on the final outcome of yesterday’s US midterm elections, as well as on this Thursday’s US inflation figures for October.

November market view